2026 US Primaries: Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas

Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas will be hosting primaries on March 3rd 2026. The primaries within each state will consist of hundreds of elections at the federal, state, and municipal level, in which candidates will be nominated to run on their party’s ticket for the November 2026 General Election. This article will focus on the key elections in each state, primarily at the Federal (National) level of American politics, in addition to statewide Gubernatorial Elections.

In contemporary American politics, Texas has often been the stereotype of a Republican “red state”. Republicans have won nearly every statewide election in Texas in the 21st century. Despite Texas’s red state status, demographic changes and voting habits within the state have given Democrats hope they may finally flip Texas blue. Each cycle, Democrats dream of a blue Texas, but consistently fall short. In 2018, they got their closest shot, in which Democrat Beto O’Rouke was barely defeated by incumbent Senator Ted Cruz 50.89% - 48.33%. Since then, this momentum has appeared to backslide as President Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris 56.14% - 42.46% in 2024. However, President Trump’s political agenda on immigration, and his administration’s low approval may give Democrats an opening to finally reach their longshot goal of winning a statewide race in Texas. 

Texas

Senate

The most anticipated primary of March 3rd 2026 will be the Texas Senate Primary in which both the Democratic Party and the Republican Primary have competitive races. 

In the Democratic Primary US House Representative Jasmine Crockett faces off against Texas State House James Talarico. Ideologically, Crockett and Talarico are quite similar, expressing liberal views on politics. Both champion Medicare for All (an expansion of America’s healthcare program for seniors to a public option for the entire country to buy-in), raising taxes on the rich, social progressivism, and economic populism. While their political views may be similar, their strategy for competing statewide is quite different.

Crockett is known for being a particularly partisan Democrat in the US House, and repeatedly going viral for sparring with Republicans in Congressional Hearings and in social media statements. In two viral moments, she has referred to incumbent Governor Greg Abbott (a paraplegic that uses a wheelchair) as “Governor Hot Wheels” and Republican House Rep Marjorie Taylor Green as a “bleach blonde bad built butch body” during a Congressional Hearing. She has stated that her strategy to win in Texas is to unleash the Democratic base and have them outvote the Republicans.

Crockett argues that voter suppression and voter apathy has kept Texas Democrats from winning, and believes mobilizing a higher turnout of Democrats to the polls on election day is the key to win. Talarico espouses a different strategy, arguing Democrats must hear out the voters of Texas and try to win over votes from all over the political spectrum. Talarico often pitches his political ideology through the lens of his Presbyterian religious beliefs and is attempting to sway voters with his more liberal interpretations of Christianity. 

Polling shows a competitive matchup between Crockett and Talarico, however, the high levels of early turnout may be hard for pollsters to develop a model capable of capturing the electorate. Aggregates show Crockett with a slight lead of 2-4% in polling, but Talarico is leading in several polls using different methodology. Many speculate that Talarico is a more competitive candidate for the general election, with polling showing him a few percentage points higher when pitched against Republicans than Crockett. However, with her high name recognition and high polling numbers in the primary, Crockett cannot be underestimated.

As for the Republican Party, incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces a competitive three way primary against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and US House Representative Wesley Hunt. President Trump has remained neutral in this primary, jointly endorsing all three major candidates in the race. This race is particularly interesting as the nominee Republicans choose could have heavy implications on who wins the race in November. It is unprecedented in American politics that an incumbent Senator of any party could face such a tough challenge within their own party, with the last successful primary challenge of a sitting Senator being over a decade ago. Senator John Cornyn has been seen to be an ally of former Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and a representative of the Republican Congressional political establishment. Cornyn’s ties to an unpopular establishment have turned a lot of those within his own base to seek other options. Ken Paxton is seen to be a closer ally of Trump, and has clearly earned a large amount of support among Texas Republicans, but carries a litany of scandals. He was impeached by the Republican dominated Texas State House as Attorney General on charges of bribery, but was exonerated by the State Senate, allowing him to continue holding office. He also allegedly committed adultery according to court statements from his divorce hearings. Paxton is seen as more polarizing among Texas moderates, and may struggle to carry a victory against a strong democratic performance as opposed to a less controversial Republican like Cornyn. Wesley Hunt, the third choice, has attempted to build his own brand lacking Paxton’s scandalous controversy and critiquing Cornyn’s establishment tie. Hunt has garnered some support in his effort to split between the two candidates, but remains a distant third in polling with Paxton and Cornyn. 

With three candidates in the race, it is all but guaranteed a runoff will be necessary to decide between the top two candidates. Hunt (the candidate polling shows in a distant third) and his coalition of voters will be crucial in deciding between Paxton and Cornyn in the upcoming May 26th runoff election. Paxton and Cornyn are each polling close to 40% in the race with Hunt polling around 20%. Paxton appears to have the edge for now, but many things can happen between now and May. Many believe that a Paxton primary victory could lead to a more competitive General Election, as his scandals may push away enough traditionally Republican voters to allow a strong Democratic campaign to win in November.

Other offices

Texas will also be holding primaries for a gubernatorial election. Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott will easily be renominated as the candidate for the Republicans. Abbott has been governor since 2015, and was Attorney General before that dating all the way back to 2002. He has been a cornerstone of Texas politics for the past two decades. Despite recent drops in his approval rating to around 50%, it is largely expected for him to cruise to reelection for a fourth term. Many prominent Texas Democrats have chosen to sit out the race for Governor, fearing longtime Governor Abbott may be too tough to beat, but that has not stopped a field of candidates. The leader among them is Texas State House Representative Gina Hinojosa, widely expected to win the Democratic Primary for Governor to challenge Abbott. She represents a new younger face for Texas Democrats, who have changed course after years of failed attempts to defeat Republicans statewide. The task in front of her is quite tall, but a big victory in the primary and energy from the Senate race and down ballot races could potentially propel her forward as a competitive candidate to Abbot.

Texas is home to 38 congressional seats, all of which will be hosting primaries for new maps Republicans have chosen to put forward in an effort to give themselves more seats in the House of Representatives and hold the chamber in 2026. There will be nearly a dozen competitive races on the Democratic and Republican side throughout the state. On the Democratic side, incumbent Democrats are being pitched against each other as their former districts were butchered in the gerrymandering process. This can be seen within Texas’s 18th District and its 33rd District. In the 18th District incumbents Al Green and Christian Menefee face off and in the 33rd District, incumbent Julie Johnson faces a primary challenge from former House Representative Collin Allred. Texas’s 15th district may also host an interesting Democratic Primary. Serving as a proxy war between Talarico and Crockett, Crockett endorsed Ada Cuellar and Talarico endorsed Bobby Pulido will fight for the opportunity to go to the General Election in November. Texas has a slew of interesting Republican primaries as well within the 2nd District, 9th District, and 23rd District. In the 2nd District, incumbent US House Representative Dan Crenshaw is facing a primary challenge from state rep Steve Toth, who is positioning that Crenshaw is too moderate for the District. In the 9th district, Trump endorsed Alex Mealer stands against Greg Abbott endorsed Briscoe Cain, a test between the coalitions standing with President Trump and Governor Greg Abbott. Finally in Texas’s 23rd District US House Representative Tony Gonzales is facing a primary challenge from Brandon Herrera, following damning allegations that a former staffer of Gonzales killed herself following an affair with the congressman. Expect there to be more surprises beyond these races amid the many different elections happening in Texas on March 3rd.

It is all but inevitable that Republicans will make gains in the Texas US house delegation following their mid-year redistricting effort, which has a goal of flipping five Democratic seats to Republican seats with new maps. However, Texas Republicans based these districts on the condition that Hispanic voters in Texas vote in similar margins to how they voted in 2024. Polling data is showing Hispanic voters are much more likely to be dissatisfied with the Trump administration than before. It is quite possible that this gerrymandering effort may have stretched their safe seats too thin. Democrats could potential bleed through and win several seats that were meant for Republicans to win. This failure would be considered a “dummymander” , a rare example in which politicians attempting to gerrymander backfires.

Early vote

The Early Vote Data in Texas has been quite astounding. Democrats have cast 1,503,212 ballots before election day and Republicans have cast 1,279,805 ballots. While we still need to see the final total on election day, the energy from democrats has been unprecedented. They have already cast over 250% of the total number of ballots that they cast in 2022. Republican turnout has also increased since 2022, but not nearly to the same degree as on the Democratic side at only 124% of their 2022 total. This explosion of turnout for Democrats may give them hope that their dreams of a Blue Texas may finally come true in November, but time will tell if Democrats can continue this energy into an electoral victory in November.

North Carolina

The North Carolina Primary has been undershadowed by the news of the Texas primary, but has elections of similar importance to the future of American politics. North Carolina was one of the seven “swing states” President Trump won in the 2024 Election in the path to his victory. The 2026 Senate Race in North Carolina is for an open seat, as incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis has chosen to not run. This gives an opportunity for Democrats to potentially capitalize on the situation to take the seat or for Republicans to boost a new generational candidate for the role.

While there are several candidates running in the Democratic primary in North Carolina, it is all but guaranteed that former Governor Roy Cooper will be the nominee for Senate in the State. Cooper is quite moderate and was able to clear the field of more serious contenders with a widespread consensus he is the best chance the Democrats have of winning a senate seat in North Carolina. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Watley is most likely going to be the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina. He will have the tall task of running against a formidable opponent in Cooper after even the incumbent Republican in the seat chose to step aside. He has heavily tied his politics to that of President Trump’s agenda. Polling at these early stages indicate Roy Cooper has a large lead over Watley, but it will be a long race until November and there is no telling what could happen between now and then.

North Carolina holds elections for its state offices on presidential cycles, not during the midterms, so there will be no gubernatorial race on the ballot. On the other hand, there will be congressional races in every seat in North Carolina. Among the many races, two stand out. In North Carolina’s 1st district, Republicans have redrawn the seat to be much more favorable to them this cycle. Trump carried this district by about 3 points in 2024 and would have carried it by 12 points with his new map. A large field has emerged to challenge incumbent Democrat Don Davis, including Republicans Lauire Buckhout, Asa Buck, and Bobby Hanig. Buckhout is currently leading the field and is expected to win. The other race to watch is within the deep blue North Carolina District 4 in which incumbent House Representative Valerie Foushee faces a progressive challenger in Nida Allam, a local County commissioner. This race is a proxy war between the Democratic Party’s Moderate and Progressive wings and may give insight to how Democrats more broadly want their party to campaign and posture going forward.

Arkansas

In the current political environment, Arkansas is one of the reddest states in the country, and it is not expected to have any competitive races in November. Incumbent Senator Tom Cotton is expected to easily win his own Republican primary in the state, and it is likely the Democrats will nominate Hallie Shoffner, a farmer, to be their nominee. In races this lopsided, the opposition will often nominate a candidate to be a "sacrificial lamb” in hopes they can capitalize on a major scandal before the election, or at the very least drive up turnout and improve party infrastructure for future elections or down ballot races within the state. As for the Gubernatorial election incumbent Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders will have no trouble winning her own primary, and will likely face Arkansas State Senator Frederick Love in November.

All four of Arkansas' House seats are Republican strongholds as well, in which the incumbents are expected to hold their seats. In an otherwise exciting and competitive night for Texas and North Carolina, the results in Arkansas will likely hold few surprises.