Barbados Elections: Mottley seeks to repeat past feats while the opposition hopes for a miracle

In a tense and somewhat apathetic atmosphere, Barbados, the small Caribbean nation and birthplace of singer Rihanna, is holding general elections today to renew its Parliament. The ruling Barbados Labour Party (BLP), led by two-term Prime Minister Mia Mottley, is seeking a third mandate with a promise to ensure “strong leadership” amid a “turbulent” international climate. Opposing her, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), led by former Mottley ally Ralph Thorne, is framing its campaign around the need for an opposition capable of providing “democratic checks and balances” on the government.

Mottley’s goal is to repeat the feat of the last two elections. On both occasions Labour swept all thirty constituencies, winning every parliamentary seat and governing without opposition. Although she is widely regarded as popular, some suspect she benefits more from the Democrats’ weakness than from overwhelming enthusiasm. The opposition party has yet to recover from the reputational damage suffered during the chaotic tenure of Mottley’s predecessor, Freundel Stuart, marked by the worst economic crisis the nation had faced since gaining independence from the United Kingdom in 1966.

Considered a charismatic and outspoken leader, Mottley has gained international prominence for her fiery speeches against global power structures, climate inaction, and wealth concentration. Despite her progressive rhetoric abroad, at home she has governed more pragmatically, spearheading an IMF-backed adjustment program to restructure the country’s public debt, the fourth highest in the world when she took office. Among her most significant institutional achievements was transforming the country into a republic in 2021, after more than five decades as a British “Commonwealth realm.”

At her massive campaign rallies across the island, surrounded by red flags, Mottley has focused on explaining why she chose to break the promise she made in 2018 and 2022, when she pledged to serve only two terms. She cites the complex international climate following Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency and the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. She has urged voters to secure leadership capable of confronting the geopolitical threats facing a small nation with an economy dependent on tourism and a volatile financial sector.

Mottley’s main electoral challenger is Ralph Thorne, the new leader of the Democrats. Though elected and re-elected to Parliament as a Labour candidate, Thorne defected to the opposition in February 2024, citing his dissatisfaction with the “lack of dissent” within Mottley’s government. Desperate to return to the legislature after six years in the wilderness, the Democrats handed Thorne near-absolute control of the party leadership with little internal debate. He has centered his message on criticizing aspects of Mottley’s record, including a sharp rise in urban crime in congested Bridgetown (Barbados is one of the most densely populated countries in the world) and the moderately high cost of living.

While Thorne has expressed confidence in victory, most local observers believe his ambitions are more modest. His aim appears to be reclaiming traditional Democratic strongholds in the island’s north and east in order to form a parliamentary bloc of around five seats. To that end, he is not seeking re-election in Christ Church South, the constituency he has represented and which is considered a solid Labour stronghold. Instead, he is contesting Saint John, a seat once held by two Democratic prime ministers and one the party nearly captured in the 2022 election.

Although most observers consider Mottley’s re-election the most likely outcome, the key question is whether she will achieve another “Red Sweep” (30–0). The decisive factor may be turnout. In the last election, only 42.8% of voters cast a ballot. Many voters disappointed with Mottley do not feel represented by the Democrats and therefore abstain. If Thorne, offering a more renewed leadership unassociated with the crisis of the “Lost Decade”, manages to reverse that dynamic, the opposition could return to Parliament.

The campaign has been noticeably more tense than in previous cycles. Thorne has repeatedly alleged that Labour is attempting to manipulate the voter registry to influence the outcome. Mottley has denied the accusations, accusing the opposition of seeking to “tarnish the country’s reputation,” but rejected the Democrats’ request to postpone the vote in order to review the electoral roll. The government points to international observers from CARICOM and the Commonwealth, who say they are confident in the robustness of Barbadian democracy.